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Is it still Christmas! Due to Call Sign’s printers closing for a couple of weeks over the Christmas period, the Editor has been badgering me for an article for the magazine. As I write, Christmas Day is still over two weeks away and knowing the Editor as I do, you will probably be reading this piece before Christmas, he couldn’t possibly have the magazine go out late – such as the second week in January so that I would be aware of exactly how we did in the run-up to Christmas! So as I say, we still have two weeks to go but if they were anything like the previous month, then it would not have been too busy. This is probably one of the quietest build-ups to Christmas I have seen and it does make me a little worried about January and February. The first two weeks of January are always very quiet, but things then tend to pick-up slightly and possibly become even quite busy if the weather is bad through snow and ice etc. Because the run-up to Christmas has been so quiet, I’m attempting to convince myself that the work we are completing at the moment will be the norm after Christmas, as everyone has already cut down their usage and the trips we are doing are actually the day-to-day work that businesses need to get done in order to run their businesses effectively. Although it may not be of much consolation, I can remember downturns in the past - four spring to mind immediately. They were the three-day week in 1974 when following industrial action by the coal miners, the Tory Government decided to conserve electricity by forcing commercial users of electricity to be limited to just three days consumption each week. This lasted from 1 January until 7 March 1974 and believe it or not, even TV had to close down at 10.30! It certainly did the taxi trade no favours. Then on March 12 1984, Arthur Scargill called a national miner’s strike following the closure of many pits. This was to continue for a large part of that year during which time things got very bad in the UK – even though it spawned Elton John’s hit musical Billy Elliot! Then of course there were the |
 early nineties when things were really dire and the UK entered into full-blown recession. More recently there was the slowdown of 2002/3 following the aftermath of 9/11 and the Iraqi war – not to mention the foot and mouth epidemic at around the same time. Although in my mind the early nineties were by far the worst downturn or recession we have experienced - well certainly in my memory - they all have one thing in common and that is that we have all come through those downturns and then experienced several years of substantial growth afterwards. Although not an economist, I am extremely confident this downturn will not be any different to those in the past. The problem we currently have is that the public are frightened to spend their money for fear they might lose their employment in the downturn. If we could only make the public start spending, then the downturn would be far shorter. The problem is, of course, how do we instil that confidence into people? The taxi industry is different as drivers depend on their livelihoods by the number of people travelling in their taxis, or indeed companies employing those same vehicles to transport their staff. So you rely on how well the economy or the individual is doing. However, as a member of the public, assuming of course you can retain your job, then this downturn is terrific! Your mortgage has never been so cheap, there are sales on everywhere and it is becoming cheaper by the week to fill your car up with petrol. And as a bonus, inflation is falling! As a result there will be millions of people who will benefit by this downturn, whilst others will lose their jobs and perhaps their assets. There is, of course, one thing fundamentally different from other downturns and that is the Bank Rate at just 2% (as I write |
and expected to drop even lower) Even at my age, I cannot remember the rate being so low, so I am hopeful that things will return to normal in the not too distant future. Although the above is good for a substantial swathe of the public, there are many who depend on the interest from their life savings to subsidise their pensions; when the Bank Rate falls, then so does the interest they receive on their savings. There’s probably a moral in there somewhere about what’s good for one may not be good for another.
Jack Russell New Year
Brian Rice |
